Market Commentary 08 May

Welcome to the market commentary with me and Ricardo and it has been a quite volatile week again at least for oil. Equity markets have gone more or less sideways over the last couple of weeks and otherwise gold also more or less sideways has gone up a little bit. Probably seen good moves in gold and even Bitcoin. Bitcoin is back at the ten thousand and Gold has jumped $30 overnight getting back at $1718 thereabouts. Gold I think back at the highest the recent highs around $1720 again. Currently, but we'll have to see if that's still resistance level holds. Anything from you around the markets?

Yeah, probably. Let me share my Dow Jones Screen. We're still stuck here sideways here between 23 and 24500. So what this shows here is there's a big fight going on right now within buyers and sellers. a lot of the buyers Probably half the markets think that we are going to push higher like towards probably back to where it came from. but there's also half that thinks that this 50% pullback is enough. We should go back down towards the lows again. The volume has slowly dropped the last few days but I think the big thing today or tonight will be the employment report. They're saying like based on the jobless claims, right? about 33 million already filing for unemployment and once we get the unemployment tonight, they're saying that probably more than 20,000 jobs will be slashed on that report. Probably the unemployment report might go from anywhere from 15 to even over 20% so which is quite bad, so everything looks probably grim on the US side

Yeah, correct. Yeah, cuz it's really interesting. I mean we have obviously all the major economy slowly opening up so that might be a bit more. activity business activity coming in over the next couple of weeks. But then again if that translates into earnings we'll have to wait and see that. Maybe we can also have a look at the oil markets because they have been quite volatile as well. On the oil markets. Yes, for you to look at the oil markets that we have seen a lot of volatility and we reach the high of around just above $27 per barrel and but has then come down pretty quickly again, and it's now around $25 a barrel.

It's a bit difficult to say where it's going from here because some experts say there's still a bit of a supply glut. And there's still a lot of supplies, which are still filling up. So we'll have to see if the support level holds in around I think 24 for just about $24 so if we breach that level then we may see at least in the short-term some lower levels from here. That's the market that has been yeah, quite affected over the last couple of hours at least 2 days in terms of market announcements like you said the unemployment figures will be quite interesting again going into the weekend and we will probably be back next week and terms of new infections in NZ...

Are we really going back into normal times, right? I know the US trade reps. and also the Chinese representatives are going back next week right to probably start phase one. Finally. Yeah, but I have a feeling the all of these countries right now might start getting too nationalistic like every man for himself right especially with this. All of the different countries now are getting decimated economy wise. I think everyone is looking at their supply chains because everyone has seen that they are very reliant on other countries when you know, what during a crisis so we may see some shifts in Supply chains, but then again, you know how it is after a crisis a couple of months later everyone has a short memory and things go back to normal.

But yeah, that's why I think all from us, fingers crossed the infections continue to go lower. Anything else from you ricotta before we sign off? I would just wait for the unemployment report tonight. And let's see what happens with the stock market especially it's just hovering here at the 50% it could go higher or lower...we'll see.

Okay, great well thanks for joining us and will be here next week for another update.

Okay by stay safe.

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