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Market Commentary 21 April

Welcome to the market commentary with Rockfort Markets. It's the 21st of April and a lot of things happened again overnight.

Obviously the Coronavirus and the new cases continue to drop, although there are a few countries where we may see a second wave and the big one overnight the drop in oil prices.

Ricardo, if you could give us a quick update on what happened, and perhaps we can have a look at a few charts as well.

Yeah, I know a lot of people are probably getting excited now that some countries are starting to relax some of these locked on measures like New Zealand should be on Level three by next week and France, I think, will be in two weeks' time and Germany is starting to ease now. So hopefully people are starting to think that the economy will start to pick up once we start getting back to the normal situation here, right, but we still get warnings from WHO that they're saying that there might still be a second wave like what's happening in Singapore right now, so cases are starting to rack up again, which it's not very good, but anyway, because of the lack of demand, the economy is down. Unemployment's quite tight. Yeah, the casualty last night was, for example, crude oil.

I'll just open up a chart of crude oil, prices of Crude Oil, don't forget a few months ago, we were at $60 right, somewhere here, then last night, because of lack of demand and there were no bidders on the May futures Month, which will expire tomorrow so people were panicking, and some of those who have oil positions even paid someone to get their positions. Let's say for the first time it went into negative territory like we went down to negative $37 plus. So, if you can see at these levels here, that was a big drop last night. And, even gold started to rally because we have seen gold slowly ease down as well from the time that the stock market has rallied, to show the stock market S&P 500. Yeah, we everyone knows about the big drop.

That was after this Corona thing started, you know, like, after the first few days. It was even rallying when they started announcing some of the Corona, figures coming out right. But we have this big drop on the S&P 500. But if you look at the chart here, we have recovered half of this down move. So, in technical terms, this is a make or break situation. Hopefully, we can still rally a bit more, but it seems to be having a hard time here.

Yeah, because I think a lot of negative overhang like employment is just massive right now, they're even thinking like some countries might have 15% to as much as 20% unemployment rates.

So it is very bad.

Yeah, I mean, equities markets have recovered by 50% but then again, there is probably a lagging effect with unemployment coming up soon? So, we'll have to see if we can hold these levels or if it might correct lower from here. But we have unemployment claims in the U. S. on Friday and also manufacturing data and service data out of Europe so that will give us a good idea of how the economies are coping.

But yeah, I think that's everything from us for now, just another little update, apparently Kim Jong Un had a surgery that didn't go as well as planned, apparently, he's in very bad condition, a life-threatening condition, that hasn't been confirmed yet. But just thought to throw that into the mix.

But yeah, that's all from us, and we'll see you again soon, it's very exciting times.

Yeah, absolutely.

Great. Well, thanks for watching and we'll see you next week.

Bye.

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