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Technical Analysis - Chart of the Week

Viable Long positions above $32000 with the target of $34300 and with the extension towards $36000. If $34300 is not broken and after testing BTC retracts then possible short positions towards $32000 and then $31000. $32000 is a Pivot, if the BTC/USD move towards $32000 from this current stage then it will continue to decline towards $310000 to move further towards $29000

AUD/CAD

  • Resistance Zone: 0.95 to 0.9530
  • Support Zone: 0.9260 to 0.9250
  • Key Support: 0.93
  • Pivot: 0.9330
  • Trade Insights – AUD/CAD pair is struggling to break through the current level of resistance at 0.9360. Viable Long positions above 0.9330 with the target of 0.94 and then towards 0.95 with an extension of 0.9530. Alternatively, can go Short below Pivot point of 0.9360 with the target of 0.93 then towards 0.9260 and then another push towards 0.9140. Then re-enter for the Long position with the target of 0.93.

AUD/CAD CHART

Chart Analysis:

Directional bias: 2 Weeks AUD/CAD

AUD/CAD chart shows the downtrend that started in February is somewhat now over and the pair is consolidating at the current level. The pair is moving sideways and tested the resistance at 0.94 twice and moving ahead to retest that level as of now. We see that the current level of 0.9360 has been proving to be a strong resistance as the prices are hovering and shying away back to the support level of 0.93 from this resistance in the past few weeks. The support zone at 0.9260 to 0.9250 would hold any downward push and if broken the pair will be pushed lowered towards 0.9140 level. However, we see it is more likely that the resistance at 0.94 could be broken in the next attempt as consolidation solidifies and buyers take full control. Once 0.94 level is broken then we could see a change of trend and start to open long positions with the target of 0.95 to 0.9530 as these are the important Fib levels.

This chart suggests at this stage scalping would be an ideal strategy and wait for a little before going long for swing trades. The chances of continuation of the downward channel are slim but can’t be overlooked at this stage.

Fundamental summary: AUD/CAD is a commodity-sensitive pair. AUD is more dependent on the exports of metals to China. Whereas Canadian dollar is strongly correlated with the price of Crude oil as one of the important exporters of this commodity. The strained relationship between Australia and China is adding fundamental stress on AUD.

XBT/USD

  • Resistance Zone: $36000 to $36500
  • Key Resistance Level: $34300
  • Support Zone: $31600 to $31000
  • Key Support: $32000
  • Pivot: $32000
  • Trade Insights – Viable Long positions above $32000 with the target of $34300 and with the extension towards $36000. If $34300 is not broken and after testing BTC retracts then possible short positions towards $32000 and then $31000. $32000 is a Pivot, if the BTC/USD move towards $32000 from this current stage then it will continue to decline towards $310000 to move further towards $29000.

XBT/USD CHART

Chart Analysis:

Directional bias: 2 Weeks XBT/USD

Bitcoin prices has retraced from $31500 to the current level of $32600. We see the pivot at $32000 and above this level a massive uptrend can trigger. Bitcoin price has been experiencing downward pressure since testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $35600 in July. Since then, Bitcoin has touched the demand zone at $30000 to $31000 once to quickly pullback towards $32000.  It could be that BTC is sitting above its inflection point and wants to retrieve back to its high range of $42000 from here. However, time will tell how true this move is up from the demand zone, the psychologically crucial level at $30000. In a worst-case scenario where buyers can expect a retest of the range low at $28700.

Fundamental summary: War on Crypto has extended to other regions from China as the miners there are under siege. One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world Binance has been facing challenges in the UK and Europe. FCA in the UK has issued warnings to Binance for offering regulated product to its citizens without License. The developments suggest that cryptocurrency regulation is coming at a large scale and it will help the case of Bitcoin in the longer term.  

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Disclaimer

The information provided is of a general nature and is not intended to be personalised financial advice. The information provided is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice. You may seek appropriate personalised financial advice from a qualified professional to suit your individual circumstances.

Trading in Rockfort Markets derivative products may not be suitable for everyone as derivative products may be considered as high risk. Please ensure that you understand the risks involved. A Product Disclosure Statement can be obtained here and should be considered before trading with us.

Vishal R

July 15, 2021

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