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Technical Analysis – Charts of The Week

Trade Insights – XAU/USD – Chart shows viable long positions above the key support level to first retest the Pivot at $1780 and after confirmation, continue targeting the key resistance at $1800 and then a test of the resistance zone at $1825 to $1833. Alternatively, if prices drop below the key support level at $1769 then short positions first targeting the support zone at 1750 to $1740 and then $1720.

XAU/USD

  • Resistance Zone: $1825 to $1833
  • Key Resistance Level: $1800
  • Major Pivot Point: $1780
  • Key Support Level: $1769
  • Support Zone: $1750 to $1740
  • Last Analysis Date: Blue Vertical Lines
  • 200 Day EMA – Green Line
  • 50 Day EMA – Red Line

Trade Insights – XAU/USD – Chart shows viable long positions above the key support level to first retest the Pivot at $1780 and after confirmation, continue targeting the key resistance at $1800 and then a test of the resistance zone at $1825 to $1833.

Alternatively, if prices drop below the key support level at $1769 then short positions first targeting the support zone at 1750 to $1740 and then $1720.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

Chart Analysis:

Directional bias: 2 Weeks XAU/USD

The Blue Vertical lines on the chart indicate our previous analysis dates on XAU/USD pair. Since 17th June the prices have been moving in a horizontal channel between the Support and Resistance zones as reflects on the chart. In the last week by 15th September after the CPI data was released by US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the prices of gold started dropping and touched $1742 by 20th September. Prices recovered quickly moving back above the Support Zone between $1750 to $1740 indicating strong demand at this level as the Gold was technically oversold.  

The XAU/USD pair is moving in the Horizontal channel between the Resistance Zone and the Support zone and prices are dropped quite below the 50-Day EMA and the 200-day EMA lines indicating Bearish Bias of the market. The prices need to move above the 1802 the 200-day EMA level so that the Buyers are fully in control and push the gold higher. After moving above the Major Pivot at $1780 the pair can test the Key Resistance zone at $1800 and that is well within the parallel channel. As seen in the past couple of instances the prices drop sharply from the $1830 mark after finding strong supply and strong resistance, this is a good target for the Bulls that are Long.

It can be seen from the chart that the prices are just hovering under the Pivot of $1780 and managed to barely touch the Pivot to retract back to $1774 at the time of analysis. $1774 is also the important point where Fibonacci levels meet as seen on the chart and prices could find some resistance here.

Lately, the prices were dropped below RSI 30 level, and we see a lot of demand here that pushes the prices upwards, but more definitive direction might be found after the Wednesday US session as the Fed Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision today. If prices are pushed below the interim Support level of 1769 also the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement (of April/June upward move.) then the next support is at $1750 to $1740. This level could hold the prices for a little while before dropping towards $1720.

Fundamental Overview: Inflation forecasts and rate outlook are two key things to watch out for in today’s Fed Reserve monetary policy decision. In case Jerome Powell unveils that the Fed will start reducing asset purchases before the end of the year, the USD is likely to gather strength and force XAU/USD to turn south. On the other hand, a dovish outlook with the chairman refraining from delivering a tapering timeline could trigger a heavy USD selloff and fuel a gold rally.

AUD/CAD

  • Resistance Zone: 94.00 to 94.30
  • Key Resistance: 93.50
  • Major Pivot Point: 93.00
  • Key Support: 92.30
  • Support Zone: 91.60 to 91.30
  • Last Analysis Date: Blue Vertical Lines
  • 200 Day EMA – Green Line
  • 50 Day EMA – Red Line

Trade Insights – The AUD/CAD Chart shows Viable Long positions above the Pivot at 93.00 first targeting the Key resistance at 93.50. and then the Resistance zone at 94.00 to 94.30. if the upward movement continues then the next resistance is at 95.35 the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level (October 2020 to Feb 2021 upward move).

Alternatively, if prices drop below the 92.30 Key Support level, then possible Short Positions towards the Support Zone at 91.60 to 91.30.

AUD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart Analysis: 

Directional bias: 2 Weeks AUD/CAD

Since our last analysis on the AUD/CAD pair in August, the prices have recovered to touch the Key resistance level at 93.50 from the lows of 91.10. As of now, it seems the pair is consolidating under the Pivot at 93.00 and with a little push can retest the key resistance level.

The pair is trading below the 50-day EMA and just around the 200-day EMA level and buyers can take over full control of the upward direction from here. Once the prices move above the key resistance level then the next level of resistance is at 94.00 to 94.30. If the uptrend is true and not a continuation of longer-term downtrend movement, then we can also see the prices touching 95.35 level. If prices stay below the Pivot and drop then key support level could be broken quickly to test the Support Zone at 91.60 to 91.30.

It is interesting to note that the prices have moved into a horizontal channel and have broken away from the longer-term descending channel as appears in the above chart. The pair has started to form higher highs and higher lows. This could be beginning of an Uptrend Rally and AUD/CAD could return to its past glory.

Fundamental Overview: In the AUD/CAD pair the base currency is AUD, and the counter currency is CAD.  The AUD/CAD chart is sensitive to broader commodity price trends including the prices of Oil, Iron ore, Coal, and other commodities as the economies of both countries are tied to natural resources.

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Disclaimer

The information provided is of a general nature and is not intended to be personalised financial advice. The information provided is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice. You may seek appropriate personalised financial advice from a qualified professional to suit your individual circumstances.

Trading in Rockfort Markets derivative products may not be suitable for everyone as derivative products may be considered as high risk. Please ensure that you understand the risks involved. A Product Disclosure Statement can be obtained here and should be considered before trading with us.

Vishal R

September 23, 2021

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